Mainly Dry Today. First Alert Weather Day On Friday
- Some Breaks of Sunshine Into Afternoon
- First Alert Weather Day for Friday - Strong Storms Possible
- More Storms Saturday - Potential for Stronger Storms
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This afternoon: This afternoon will bring some breaks in the cloud cover. Temperatures are expected to be near 80°. It will feel muggy out there due to dew points in the upper 60s. A stray shower is possible this afternoon, but the potential for seeing rain is very low.
Friday Is A First Alert Weather Day: We’re continuing to monitor the storm risk for Friday, especially in our southern counties. There is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding how this system will develop and whether stronger storms will form. At this point, the potential for strong or possibly severe weather appears to be south of St. Louis, where the warm front is expected to set up. Along that front, conditions will become more favorable for storm development, with increasing moisture and instability. As a complex of storms moves in from Kansas or Oklahoma, it may briefly hold together and serve as a focus for stronger storms from late morning into the afternoon. There is still uncertainty about exactly where these storms will track. A shift north of the front and storms would increase our severe risk, a southern shift reduced the threat.
The timing of the storms is also a key factor. Faster-moving storms with an earlier arrival would decrease the severe weather risk, while a slower arrival would likely increase it. As of now, areas just south of St. Louis are included in the lowest Level 1 severe risk, with a higher Level 2 risk farther south.
This Weekend: We’ve increased the chance of rain and storms on Saturday as our forecast models are now in better agreement with an area of low pressure moving across Missouri and Illinois. There are even some early signals for strong to severe storms, but there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding that threat for Saturday. At this point, our entire viewing area is in a low level 1 risk. Sunday’s rain chances are lower, resulting in a slightly warmer afternoon.
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